So sang Marc Bolan of T. Rex on the B-side of Jeepster (what a tune – and Electric Warrior is a great album!). As the latest Greenhouse Gas emissions publication reminds us, these are true words!

Following the recent publication of the Final UK greenhouse gas emissions statistics [1] we thought we would look at how the territorial waste emissions have changed over the recent years, and compared the latest (2024, just released) data shown against 2019 and 2014 to get an idea of the trends.

The graph below shows the changes from each category within the waste industry activities. It should be noted that emissions for Energy from Waste (incineration with energy recovery) come under the category of ‘energy supply’, not ‘waste emissions’, however we have extracted these and included in the graph below for completeness.

Over the past 10 years, waste has been a relatively small contributor to the overall territorial emissions, however, has increased from 4.9% (26.2MtCO2e) in 2014 to 5.7% (21.5MtCO2e) in 2024. This was reported in the press as 6%, however this is not the full picture, if EfW is considered, (see graph) the emissions associated with ‘municipal solid waste power stations’ has increased from 2.5 to 7.3 MtCO2e.

What this means is the net effect of waste management (including energy recovery) has increased from 5.4% of UK emissions in 2014 to 7.7% in 2024. Or in absolute terms, has stayed about the same (from 28.66MtCO2 eq. in 2014 to 28.78MtCO2 in 2024), the percentage increased due to other sectors in the economy decarbonising, making the waste management element increase proportionately.

So why do we still espouse the great success of our sector in greenhouse gas reductions? It is true to say we made huge strides in emissions reduction (largely via landfill reduction / increased recycling) in the early 2000’s and that landfill diversion has continued, but the stabilisation of recycling (and therefore residual waste disposal rates) over the last ten years has led to an increase in EfW emissions, which offsets recent landfill emissions reduction, so in absolute terms, we are, as an industry as a whole, almost exactly where we were 10 years ago.

There has been no real waste growth over that period (in fact a slight decline on municipal waste) and to an extent waste managers can only deal with what is given to them, and the boundaries within which they operate. The material markets, government policy and tax instruments have proven ineffective at helping restart stagnant recycling, in England at least.

But to the positive – we have made progress in reducing transport emissions in some areas of waste collection (not included under the ‘waste’ category of emissions reporting), and the fact that municipal waste has declined over the last ten years whilst the population has been rising, shows that the waste (and emissions) per person (in tonnage consumption terms) is falling, which is a prime goal of resource efficiency. And right now it feels like the impending reforms in collection policy in England are very timely if we are to reboot our recycling performance and reduce our absolute emissions over the next ten years - taking more food out of landfill and more plastic out of EfW will certainly help.

55 years ago, T. Rex, in the same song, sang “I could have built a house on the ocean”, let’s hope that isn’t as true!

Frith Resource Management undertake waste strategy and research work for Councils, central government and other organisations. For more details see www.frithrm.com or call 01746 552423 or email paul@frithrm.com.

[1] DESNZ Final UK greenhouse gas emissions statistics: 1990 to 2024